Dubai — Talk of a looming buyer’s market in Dubai’s property sector is growing louder, but new delivery data suggests the reality on the ground is far more nuanced.
Buyers and investors have been advised to wait for a wave of new homes expected to ease prices in 2026. However, delivery figures show that a significant portion of planned supply is unlikely to reach handover on time, keeping actual inventory tight and competition firm.
According to data tracked by Morgan’s International Realty, fewer than half of Dubai’s forecast residential units are expected to be completed this year. Of the 71,613 units originally projected, only around 34,740 are likely to be delivered — well below headline expectations and recent norms.
The gap between forecasts and reality is not new. In 2025, Dubai was projected to deliver 37,171 residential units, but only about 62% of that supply ultimately materialised. This persistent shortfall is quietly shaping market dynamics and limiting the broad-based leverage many buyers are hoping for.
Selective, Not a Buyer’s Market
With ready stock still constrained and demand holding steady, market experts say 2026 is unlikely to bring across-the-board price softening.
“Realistic deliveries remain below levels that would materially overwhelm absorption,” said Elias Hannoush, Founder and CEO of Morgan’s International Realty. “The market is not structurally positioned to shift in buyers’ favour this year.”
Delivery volumes also remain below Dubai’s five-year annual average of approximately 35,500 completed units, reinforcing expectations that price corrections will be isolated rather than widespread.
Instead of a buyer’s market, analysts describe 2026 as a selective market, where informed buyers can find opportunities — but only in specific locations and time windows.
Short Windows of Leverage
Buyer leverage may emerge briefly when large developments complete and multiple similar units enter the market at once. These moments tend to appear in high-density, mid-market areas, where investor-driven projects finish simultaneously.
“Once that initial wave is absorbed, competition returns quickly and negotiation power fades,” Hannoush explained.
Areas such as Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC), Business Bay, and Azizi Venice are expected to see elevated delivery volumes between 2025 and 2027. JVC alone leads Dubai’s pipeline with 16,852 units, followed by Business Bay with 10,127 units.
While these districts may offer short-lived negotiation opportunities, experts caution that villas, townhouses, and premium properties remain structurally undersupplied, keeping prices firm in those segments.
Prices Supported by Rentals
Despite claims that Dubai prices are “artificially elevated,” market specialists argue that strong rental demand continues to underpin values.
“When delivery volumes fall short of plans, the market avoids sudden oversupply that typically triggers sharp corrections,” Hannoush said, noting that rental performance — not handovers — is often the first warning sign of price weakness.
At present, rental demand remains robust, limiting downward pressure on asset values.
Should Buyers Wait for 2027?
Some investors are being advised to wait until 2027, when a projected 70,537 units could be delivered — a 27% increase over baseline forecasts. While this may expand choice, experts warn it does not automatically translate into lower prices.
“Waiting is more likely to increase options rather than affordability,” Hannoush said, unless supply clearly outpaces demand and vacancy rates rise.
Andrew Cummings, Head of Residential Agency at Savills Middle East, echoed the sentiment: “Real estate isn’t crypto. The objective is to buy well and hold, not time short-term market swings.”
The Real Risk in 2026
Industry leaders agree the biggest risk for buyers this year isn’t overpaying or waiting — it’s choosing the wrong asset.
“Well-positioned properties tend to hold value, while undifferentiated stock behaves very differently,” Hannoush said.
As Dubai’s property market continues to mature, success in 2026 is likely to depend less on timing the cycle and more on understanding delivery realities, location-specific supply, and long-term fundamentals.
Bottom line: 2026 may not be a buyer’s market — but for informed, strategic buyers, opportunities still exist in the right places, at the right moments.
Source: Khaleej Times
